Prediction of freshwater aquaculture production of Qingdao city by using a grey prediction model

Fishery system is a large system which is multi-factor, multi-layer and multi-objective, embracing many complicated relationships. Grey prediction is performed on the grey prediction model which forecasts the future from the past, with the aim to determine the future trend of the system in question, and to provide the decision makers with scientific evidence. This paper forecasted the freshwater aquaculture production of Qingdao city by using a grey prediction model. Based on 5, 10 and 20 years' aquaculture production data, thepredicted 2010 production were 93 400, 117 100, and 241 000 tons, respectively. The authors discussed that the different results were not due to the model failure but to the different data, and the forecasted result from the 5-year data was recommended.