Volume 16 Issue 2
Apr.  2020
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SHEN Yuxin, ZHANG Shuo, WU Lizhen, LU Jikun, FU Guanghui. Application of grey topological prediction model in water quality prediction of artificial reef area in Haizhou Bay[J]. South China Fisheries Science, 2020, 16(2): 77-86. DOI: 10.12131/20190171
Citation: SHEN Yuxin, ZHANG Shuo, WU Lizhen, LU Jikun, FU Guanghui. Application of grey topological prediction model in water quality prediction of artificial reef area in Haizhou Bay[J]. South China Fisheries Science, 2020, 16(2): 77-86. DOI: 10.12131/20190171
shu

Application of grey topological prediction model in water quality prediction of artificial reef area in Haizhou Bay

  • 1.

    College of Marine Sciences, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China

  • 2.

    Lianyungang City Sea Use and Protection Dynamic Surveillanc Center, Lianyungang 222001, China

  • 3.

    Lianyungang Marine and Fishery Development Promotion Center, Lianyungang 222003, China

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  • Received Date: September 01, 2019
  • Revised Date: November 07, 2019
  • Accepted Date: January 10, 2020
  • Available Online: January 18, 2020
    Graphical Abstract
    • Abstract

  • In this study, we applied residual modified GM (1,1) model and grey topological prediction method to establish water quality prediction models based on the monitoring data of dissolved oxygen (DO), chemical oxygen demand (COD), biochemical oxygen demand (BOD5) and dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) of the artificial reef area in Haizhou Bay in spring (May) and autumn (October) of 2007−2017. Then we selected the model with higher accuracy to predict the variation trend of water concentration during 2018−2022. Finally, we verified the forecast results with the meaured data of 2018. The results indicate that the grey topological model has better prediction accuracy for water quality data than the residual correction GM (1,1). The predicted results are consistent with the actual values in 2018, so the model is reliable. According to the prediction results, the DO and COD can maintain good values in 2018−2022. It is shown that the construction of artificial reef has a certain restoration effect on the water environment of the sea area, but BOD5 and DIN have a risk of exceeding the standard; and  improvement of grey topology model should be further explored.

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