Forecasting fishing ground of mackerel (Scomber australasicus) in Arabian Sea based on habitat suitability index

In order to better understand and sustainably develop and utilize the mackerel (Scomber australasicus) resources in the Arabian Sea, according to the Chinese light purse seine production data of mackerel in the high sea of the Arabian Sea during the main fishing seasons (January, February, October and November) from 2016 to 2017, combining with the environmental data of sea surface temperature (SST), sea level anomaly (SLA), mixed-layer thickness (MLT), chlorophyll-a concentration (CHL), we established the habitat suitability index (HSI) models, which were based on catch (FC) and fishing times (FT), FC-HSI model and FT-HSI mo-del. In the sea area with HSI greater than 0.6, the actual catches in 2016 and 2017 accounted for 76.25% and 80.03%, respectively. Using the actual production data in 2018 to verify the prediction accuracy of FC-HSI and FT-HSI models, it is found that in the sea area with HSI greater than 0.6, the actual catches accounted for 45.68% and 50.15%, respectively, which indicates that the prediction result of FT-HSI model was slightly better than that of FC-HSI model. This study shows that the FT-HSI model based on SST, MLT, SLA and CHL can better predict the central fishing ground of mackerel in the Arabian Sea.