The preliminary study on the structure regulation of marine fishery yield in Liaoning province

Based on marine fishery statistics data in Liaoning province, an analysis of marine fishery yield structure was made, the surplus yield model was used to calculate the maximum sustainable yield, and the forecasted yield of marine culture, pelagic fishing and each domestic fishing sea over the period from 2004 to 2010 was calculated by using autoregressive integrated moving average model ［ARIMA(p,d,q)］ and grey model theory［GM(1,1)］. The result indicated that offshore fishing yield in Liaoning province, which had overrun maximum sustainable yield,would increase on the certain degree over the period from 2004 to 2010 if some effective measures wasn't be adopted. Compared with the number of 2003 in Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea, the marine fishing yield would increase by 234.0 thousand tons and 237.9 thousand tons. Furthermore, compared with the number of 2003 in mariculture and pelagic fishing, the yield would increase by 85.9 thousand tons and 2 424.0 thousand tons. And a discussion about the structure regulation of marine fishery yield was made.