Influence of statistical deviation of historical catch on stock assessment: a case study of western Atlantic Thunnus thynnus

Catch data, which is the most basic data for stock assessment, is also most likely to cause reporting and statistical errors. Misreporting is one of the causes for statistical deviation of historical catch, which is currently prevalent in all types of fisheries worldwide. Analyzing the influence of statistical deviation of historical catch on stock assessment based on historical data helps to establish reasonable management objectives, and promote sustainable utilization of fishery resources. In this study, we selected western Atlantic bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus) as an example to evaluate the influence of statistical deviation of historical catch on its stock assessment. We carried out a stock assessment by using Age-Structured Assessment Program (Age-Structured Assessment Program, ASAP), and investigated the effects of catch information inaccuracy on the assessment results by setting different levels of statistical deviation of historical catch. The results indicate that the estimated values of fishing mortality (F) and spawning stock biomass (SSB) changed in the same direction with the adjusted catch. With the increase of statistical deviation of catch, the relative difference of biological reference points also increased. The relative deviation rate of F-related biological reference points was less than 1% under all eight assumed statistical deviations of catch. When the statistical deviation of the historical catch was assumed as −20%, the maximum relative difference of SSB-related biological reference points was about 4%. The statistical deviation of catch had a more obvious impact on SSB-related biological reference points than F-related biological reference points. In conclusion, it is suggested to strengthen the source analysis of catch data quality issues, so that the scientific reconstruction of historical fishery data can be conducted to improve the accuracy and reliability of the stock assessment results.