应用体重结构的实际种群分析模型估算捕捞死亡系数和资源量的初步研究

A preliminary study on the estimation of the fishing mortality and the population abundance using weight-based virtual population analysis model (WVPA)

摘要: 实际种群分析(VPA)是渔业评估的经典方法之一，被广泛应用于分析渔业的历史数据、估算渔业种群的资源量及捕捞死亡系数。文章提出了体重结构的VPA(WVPA)，蒙特卡罗模拟分析的结果表明，即使在较高的白色噪音水平下(30%)，WVPA仍然可以较准确的估算捕捞死亡系数相对估算误差REE=3.81%(长寿命种群)，和2.75%(短寿命种群)。文章应用WVPA与年龄结构的VPA一起评估大西洋赤鲷渔业，结果表明，采用WVPA得到的结论与采用VPA的结果近似一致，但考虑到体重结构产量数据更易获得，该方法更具有优越性。

Abstract: Virtual population analysis is one of classical methods in fishery stock estimation, which is used to analyze the history data, and to estimate the population abundance and the fishing mortality. This paper proposes weight-based VPA (WVPA), the result of Monte Carlo simulation analysis shows that even the white noises are high (30%), WVPA can also estimate the fishing mortality accurately the relative estimated errors REE=3.81%(long-lived population), and REE=2.75%(short-lived population). This paper applies WVPA and VPA to the red porgy fishery in Atlantic, and both results are almost similar. But giving it is easy to obtain the data of weight output, WVPA proposed in this paper has more advantages.