连续形Fox产量模型在模拟和实际渔业评估中的应用

Application of a continuous Fox-form production model in fishery stock assessment

  • 摘要: 剩余产量模型因为具有形式简单和所需数据少的特点,在渔业资源评估中被广泛应用。文章应用连续形Fox产量模型对3种模拟渔业以及北大西洋剑鱼渔业进行了评估,并对模拟渔业的评估结果进行了比较,以发现连续Fox产量模型比较适宜的渔业条件。蒙特卡罗(Monte Carlo)分析表明,模型在产量和捕捞努力量随时间波动的波动性渔业中评估效果最好,可能是由于该类型渔业过程比较完整,数据中包含的信息比较丰富。比较不同的白色噪音水平,当白色噪音小于10%时评估结果偏差较小,小于3.3%;当白色噪音为50%时,评估结果偏差较大, 最大偏差为36.7%。

     

    Abstract: Because of their simple form and relatively undemanding of data, surplus production models were widely used in fishery stock assessment. This paper used a continuous Fox-form production model to analyze 3 simulated fisheries and the North Atlantic swordfish fishery. The results of the simulated fisheries were compared to determine what fishery data condition is most suitable for the continuous Fox-form production model. Monte Carlo simulation analysis showed that the model performance for fishery 3 was better than those for the other two simulated fisheries. This may be because the exploitation process of fishery 3 is more complete and fishery 3 data contains more information. When white noise was less than 10%, the percentage biases were small, less than 3.3%. When the white noise was 50%, the percentage biases were large with the largest of 36.7%.

     

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