对渔业实际种群分析(VPA)中调谐方法的初步研究

Preliminary study of the tuning methods in fisheries virtual population analysis(VPA)

  • 摘要: 实际种群分析法(VPA)是渔业资源评估的经典模型之一,也是总允许捕捞配额(TAC)计算的主要模型之一。由于VPA方法本身具有不确定性,单纯的分年龄组产量数据不能计算最末年的捕捞死亡系数(和种群数量),所以它通常需要分年龄组产量数据和附属数据。VPA的调谐方法发源于欧洲,它们简单、易于理解和不需要繁杂的计算,在实际的渔业资源评估中有着广泛的应用。文章研究了最具有典型性的3种VPA调谐方法,JAM(judicious average method)、LS(Laurec and Shepherd method)和Hybrid。应用模拟数据的研究表明,3种方法在捕捞死亡系数稳定时可以较准确地估计补充值。当捕捞死亡系数随时间增加时,LS方法相对于其它2种方法有较优的表现。当捕捞死亡系数随时间减少时,JAM方法有较优的表现。

     

    Abstract: Virtual population analysis (VPA) is one of the classic models in fish stock assessment, and is one of the main models in calculating the total allowable catch (TAC). Because of the indeterminacy of VPA, the catch-at-age data itself can not estimate the fishing mortality (and stock size) of the terminal years, therefore it requires the catch-at-age data and the auxiliary data. The tuning methods in VPA originated from Europe, they are simple to understand and do not require complicated calculations, and are widely applied in the practical fish stock assessment. This paper analyzed the three most typical tuning methods: JAM(judicious average method),LS(Laurec and Shepherd method),Hybrid. Simulation analysis shows that when fishing mortality rates are in status quo, all the three methods can produce correct solutions. When fishing mortality rates change with time, the LS method has better performances than the other two.

     

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