基于系统动力学模型的渔业资源增殖放流效应分析

Analysis of effects of fishery stock enhancement based on system dynamics model

  • 摘要: 该研究从系统动力学角度出发,着眼于动态系统的整体统筹,综合考虑渔业、生态和社会三方面要素,对山东省中国对虾增殖放流渔业进行了系统动力学建模仿真,并通过对预测结果的比较分析,探讨了合理的放流量、捕捞努力量等决策变量,以期为渔业决策者提供有益的参考。文中提出的方法亦可用于对渔业资源生物量、产量、社会效益、生态效应的评估和预报。

     

    Abstract: From the perspective of system dynamics, considering aspects of fishery, ecology and society, we construct a simulative model of fishery enhancement and release of Penaeus chinensis in Shandong, and analyze the decision variables such as rational releasing number and fishing effort, so as to provide useful advices for further policy-making in programs of marine fishery stock enhancement. The method we introduce can also evaluate and forecast fishery abundance, yield, social benefits and ecological effects.

     

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