西北印度洋鸢乌贼栖息地适宜性年代际变动
Interdecadal variation in habitat suitability of purpleback flying squid (Sthenoteuthis oualaniensis) in Northwestern Indian Ocean
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摘要: 鸢乌贼 (Sthenoteuthis oualaniensis) 常被作为评估海洋生态环境与多尺度气候波动的海洋指示物种。为揭示长时间尺度下不同气候模态的复合驱动效应,本研究基于1951—2024年西北印度洋海表面温度 (Sea surface temperature, SST) 和风速 (Wind speed, WS) 数据,构建了栖息地适宜性指数 (Habitat Suitability Index, HSI) 模型,系统分析了印度洋偶极子 (Indian Ocean Dipole, IOD) 与厄尔尼诺-南方涛动 (El Niño-Southern Oscillation, ENSO) 事件组合对鸢乌贼适宜栖息地时空分布及纬度重心的影响。研究发现,该海域的海表面温度距平 (Sea surface temperature anomaly, SSTA) 和风速距平 (Wind speed anomaly, WSA) 分别呈现“西北冷、东南暖”和“西南异常偏强、西北异常偏弱”的空间特征。交相关分析表明,HSI与印度洋偶极子指数 (Dipole Mode Index, DMI)及大洋尼诺指数 (Oceanic NiñoIndex, ONI)均呈显著负相关,且分别在滞后4个月和5个月时达到最大负面影响。在气候事件的协同作用下,负相IOD (−IOD)与拉尼娜 (La Niña) 事件的组合促进了适宜栖息地的扩张;相反,正相IOD (+IOD)与厄尔尼诺 (El Niño) 的组合则导致栖息地显著萎缩至最低水平,并驱动其适宜栖息地向高纬度发生偏移。这表明西北印度洋鸢乌贼栖息地的年代际演变并非受单一气候模态主导,而是IOD与ENSO复合调控的结果。研究结果可为未来建立基于多尺度气候监测的动态渔场预警及跨国界配额管理提供关键的科学依据。Abstract: Purpleback flying squid (Sthenoteuthis oualaniensis) is often used as a marine indicator species for evaluating marine ecological environments and multi-scale climate fluctuations. We constructed a Habitat Suitability Index (HSI) model based on sea surface temperature (SST) and wind speed (WS) data of the Northwestern Indian Ocean from 1951 to 2024 to reveal the composite driving effects of different climate modes over long time scales, and we systematically analyzed the influences of combined Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events on the spatiotemporal distribution and latitudinal centroid of suitable habitats for purpleback flying squid. We found that sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) presented a spatial feature of cold in the northwest and warm in the southeast, while wind speed anomaly (WSA) showed abnormally strong values in the southwest and abnormally weak values in the northwest. Cross-correlation analysis showed that HSI was significantly negatively correlated with both Dipole Mode Index (DMI) and Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), and the maximum negative impacts appeared at lags of 4 and 5 months, respectively. Under the synergistic effect of climatic events, the combination of negative-phase IOD (−IOD) and La Niña promoted the expansion of suitable habitats; on the contrary, the combination of positive-phase IOD (+IOD) and El Niño caused habitats to shrink sharply to the minimum range and pushed suitable habitats to migrate toward high latitudes. It is confirmed that the interdecadal variation of purpleback flying squid habitats in the Northwestern Indian Ocean is not dominated by a single climate mode but jointly regulated by IOD and ENSO. This conclusion supplies key scientific support for the future construction of dynamic fishing ground early warning systems and transboundary quota management based on multi-scale climate monitoring.
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