基于LB-SPR模型的珠江口凤鲚种群状态评估

Population status assessment of Coilia mystus in Pearl River Estuary based on LB-SPR model

  • 摘要: 凤鲚 (Coilia mystus) 是珠江口重要经济鱼类,但种群开发状态长期缺乏系统评估。为在数据有限条件下准确评估其开发状态与繁殖潜力,本研究基于2020—2024年珠江口底拖网调查样本 (n=2 890,体长24~224 mm),估算其体长-体质量关系、生长参数、死亡参数及性成熟参数,并采用基于体长的产卵潜力比模型 (Length-based spawning potential ratio, LB-SPR) 对种群资源状况进行评估。结果显示,凤鲚体长-体质量关系为W=4×10−6L3.005 (r2=0.919 1)。渐近体长L∞=236.25 mm,生长系数K=0.54 a−1,总死亡率Z=1.77 a−1,自然死亡率M=0.67 a−1,捕捞死亡率F=1.10 a−1,开发率E=0.62。LB-SPR模型估算结果表明,凤鲚种群的产卵潜力比 (Spawning potential ratio, SPR) 为0.19,F/M为1.77;渔具选择性参数Lc50=100.49 mm、Lc95=141.72 mm,均低于成熟参数Lm50=132.77 mm、Lm95=219.08 mm。结果表明渔获个体在较大比例上于性成熟前即进入高选择性捕捞阶段。体长频率组成显示,小体长个体占比较高,而成熟大个体占比较低。敏感性分析表明,SPR对L∞的变化最为敏感,对自然死亡与生长参数比值 (M/K) 次之,对Lm50相对不敏感。综合判断,珠江口凤鲚当前承受较高捕捞压力,其繁殖潜力已接近限制参考点。建议通过提高最小开捕体长、优化渔具选择性并减少幼鱼捕捞等措施,促进资源恢复与可持续利用。

     

    Abstract: Coilia mystus is a commercially important fish species in the Pearl River Estuary, yet its exploitation status has long lacked systematic quantification. To accurately evaluate its exploitation status and reproductive potential under data-limited conditions, we analyzed the bottom-trawl survey samples collected from 2020 to 2024 (n=2 890, total length 24−224 mm) to estimate the length-mass relationship, growth, mortality, and maturity parameters. Besides, we assessed the stock status by using the length-based spawning potential ratio (LB-SPR) model. The length-mass relationship was expressed as W=4 × 10−6L3.005 (r2 = 0.9191). The estimated asymptotic length (L∞) was 236.25 mm, and the growth coefficient (K) was 0.54 a−1. The total mortality rate (Z) was 1.77 a−1, with natural mortality (M) and fishing mortality (F) estimated at 0.67 a−1 and 1.10 a−1, respectively, yielding an exploitation rate (E) of 0.62. The LB-SPR model estimated a spawning potential ratio (SPR) of 0.19 and an F/M ratio of 1.77. The gear selectivity parameters (Lc50=100.49 mm and Lc95=141.72 mm) were both lower than the maturity parameters (Lm50=132.77 mm and Lm95=219.08 mm), indicating that a substantial proportion of individuals were subjected to selective fishing before reaching sexual maturity. The length-frequency distribution showed a high proportion of small individuals and a relatively low proportion of large mature individuals. According to the sensitivity analysis, SPR was most sensitive to changes in L∞, followed by M/K (Ratio of natural mortality to growth parameter), but was relatively insensitive to Lm50. In conclusion, the results indicate that the C. mystus population in the Pearl River Estuary is currently under high fishing pressure, and its reproductive potential is close to the limit reference point. Accordingly, management measures such as increasing the minimum capture size, optimizing gear selectivity, and reducing juvenile catch are recommended to promote stock recovery and sustainable exploitation.

     

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