西北太平洋日本鲭时空分布及其与海洋环境因子的关系分析

Analysis of spatio-temporal distribution of Scomber japonicus and its relationship with marine environmental factors in Northwest Pacific

  • 摘要: 日本鲭 (Scomber japonicus) 是西北太平洋重要经济鱼类,其资源分布易受海洋环境及气候变化影响,近年来资源量呈下降趋势。基于2014—2021年6—11月西北太平洋日本鲭的捕捞数据,系统分析了该物种时空分布特征及其与关键海洋环境因子的响应关系,为其资源管理和可持续利用提供科学依据。研究发现,日本鲭单位捕捞努力量渔获量 (Catch per unit effort, CPUE) 的高值区呈显著季节性迁徙规律:夏季从西南向东北方向移动,秋季则回迁至西南海域。在空间格局上,年际分布主要集中在145°E—160°E、35°N—45°N海域内,月际分布主要集中在145°E—155°E、37°N—44°N海域内;时间序列分析表明,年际CPUE呈下降趋势,但9—11月维持较高水平。采用广义加性模型 (Generalized Additive Model, GAM) 量化评估了海表面温度 (SST)、100~200 m水层温度 (T100、T150、T200)、0~200 m水层溶解氧 (DO、DO100、DO150、DO200)、表层盐度 (SSS) 及叶绿素a浓度 (Chl-a) 等环境因子对CPUE的协同影响。结果表明,温度相关因子对CPUE的非线性效应贡献率占主导地位,其中SST的贡献率最高 (累积偏差解释率为6.69%,p<0.001),而SSS与Chl-a的偏差解释率相对较低。研究表明,西北太平洋日本鲭的时空分布具有显著季节性迁移和年际波动特征,呈由西向东、由南向北扩展趋势;海洋变暖可能对该资源造成新的生态压力。

     

    Abstract: As a key commercial species in the Northwest Pacific, Scomber japonicus has shown a decreasing population trend in recent years due to its vulnerability to marine environmental and climatic changes. Based on the fishery observation data from June to November of 2014−2021, we systematically analyzed the spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of S. japonicus and its response relationship with key marine environmental factors in the Northwest Pacific, providing a scientific basis for its resource management and sustainable utilization. The study reveals a significant seasonal migration pattern in high-CPUE (Catch per unit effort) aggregation areas: a southwest-to-northeast shift in summer, followed by a return to southwestern waters in autumn. Spatially, the inter-annual distribution was primarily between 145°E−160°E and 35°N−45°N, while monthly distribution was between 145°E−155°E and 37°N−44°N. Temporal analysis indicates a declining inter-annual CPUE trend, with monthly variation maintaining higher levels from September to November. Using a Generalized Additive Model (GAM), we quantified the synergistic effects of environmental factors, including sea surface temperature (SST), water temperatures at 100−200 m depth (T100, T150, T200), dissolved oxygen at 0−200 m water layer (DO, DO100, DO150, DO200), sea surface salinity (SSS), and chlorophyll-a concentration (Chl-a) on CPUE. The results demonstrate that temperature-related factors dominated the nonlinear effects on CPUE, with SST exhibiting the highest contribution (Cumulative deviance explained: 6.69%, p<0.001), while SSS and Chl-a showed relatively lower explanatory power. The study reveals that the spatio-temporal distribution of S. japonicus in the Northwest Pacific exhibits significant seasonal and inter-annual fluctuations, showing an expansion trend from west to east and south to north. Ocean warming may exacerbate ecological pressures on its fishery resource.

     

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