Abstract:
Due to data limitation, most fisheries, most fisheries find it difficult to use traditional fisheries resource assessment methods to provide recommendations for fisheries management. As a result, data-limited assessment models have gainedincreasing attention, among which catch-maximum sustainable yield (CMSY) has become a widely used method internationally. However, studies indicate that CMSY is highly dependent on prior assumptions, and the specific impacts of different parameter priors on model outputs remain uncertain. To address this problem, we conducted a sensitivity analysis of CMSY by randomly selecting 200 fish and invertebrate populations from different sea areas from the RAM Legacy Stock Assessment Database. The model estimation results, including biomass trajectory, MSY,
BMSY,
FMSY,
B/
BMSY and
F/
FMSY were systematically analyzed to examine their variations by incrementally adjusting the upper and lower bounds of the intrinsic growth rate (
r), and the biomass levels at the start, middle and end years (
Bstart/
K,
Bint/
K,
Bend/
K). The results indicate that: 1) Biomass trajectory,
BMSY, and
FMSY were significantly influenced by the lower bound of
r, while
B/
BMSY and
F/
FMSY were more sensitive to the upper bound of
Bend/
K. MSY was less affected by the prior settings of the parameters. 2) Taxonomic classification at the order level exhibited no significant influence on the sensitivity of the CMSY method. 3) Variations in parameter priors were observed to induce quadrant transitions in the population stock status depicted in the Kobe plot, among which the upper bound of
Bend/
K showed the most significant effect. This study reveals that the CMSY model exhibited high sensitivity to parameter prior settings. It is suggested that careful parameter configuration and result interpretation are essential when utilizing this model.