未来气候情境下中国东海鲐鱼栖息地的时空分布

Spatio-temporal distribution of habitat patterns of Scomber japonicus in East China Sea under future climatic conditions

  • 摘要: 为探讨全球气候变化对东海鲐鱼 (Scomber japonicus) 栖息地时空分布的影响,减缓气候变化对鲐鱼渔场的不利影响,基于CMIP6气候模式输出的2.5 m (Temp_2.5 m)、25 m (Temp_25 m) 和50 m (Temp_50 m) 水温数据分析3种未来气候情境下 (SSP126、SSP370和SSP585) 东海鲐鱼栖息地的时空变化。结果表明,SSP126情境下,2015—2100年渔场内所有水层温度整体变化幅度较小。SSP370和SSP585情境下,各水层温度均明显上升。3个水层温度在2015—2020、2055—2060和2095—2100年具有明显空间变化。2015—2100年东海鲐鱼渔场的栖息地指数 (Habitat suitability index, HSI) 和适宜栖息地面积比例在SSP126、SSP370和SSP585情境下整体呈下降趋势,而不适宜栖息地面积呈上升趋势。不同气候变化情境下,东海鲐鱼适宜栖息地在2015—2020、2055—2060和2095—2100年3个时间段内主要分布在122°E—126°E、28°N—30°N范围内,不适宜栖息地主要分布在渔场中部;此外,鲐鱼适宜栖息地重心具有向北移动的趋势。研究表明,在未来全球变暖的气候背景下东海海域不易形成适宜的鲐鱼栖息地。

     

    Abstract: To investigate the effects of global climate change on the habitat pattern of Scomber japonicus in the East China Sea and to slow down the adverse effects of climate change on the fishing ground of S. japonicus, based on the water temperature data of 2.5 m (Temp_2.5 m), 25 m (Temp_25 m) and 50 m (Temp_50 m) output by CMIP6 climate model, we analyzed the spatio-temporal changes of the habitat in the East China Sea under three future climatic conditions (SSP126, SSP370 and SSP585). The results show that for SSP126, Temp_2.5 m, Temp_25 m and Temp_50 m showed relatively minor changes. For SSP370 and SSP585, Temp_2.5 m, Temp_25 m and Temp_50 m showed an overall upward trend. The three factors also changed in the spatial distribution during 2015−2020, 2055−2060 and 2095−2100. The habitat suitability index (HSI) on the fishing ground and proportion of suitable habitat of S. japonicus in the East China Sea from 2015 to 2100 showed a similar downward trend under SSP126, SSP370 and SSP585 conditions. However, the proportion of unsuitable habitat area from 2015 to 2100 increased under SSP126, SSP370 and SSP585 conditions. The suitable habitats of S. japonicus were mainly distributed in the waters of 122°E−126°E and 28°N−30°N during 2015−2020, 2055−2060 and 2095−2100, while the unsuitable habitat was mainly distributed in the middle of fishing ground. In addition, the gravity center of suitable habitat of S. japonicus tended to move northward. The results suggest that the global warming is unfavorable for the formation of suitable habitat of S. japonicus in the East China Sea.

     

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